![]() You can see the results of MPE and get a close estimation of rainfall in 1 hour, 6 hour and 24 hour increments here. MPE uses a mosaic of the radars listed below then calibrates the radar rainfall estimates with ground based rain gages. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.The Radar sites above are used by the SERFC in their Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimate (MPE) program which is the method of computing rainfall amounts for the river forecasting models. The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. When Was The Last 'Quiet' Hurricane Season? How El Niño Could Influence Next Winter In California How El Niño Could Influence Hurricane Season Interactive radar is available on the Enhanced Radar page, which is now located on the main navigation using the down arrow button. So it's certainly possible that 2023 could end up topping the record-warm year of 2016. NOAA's calculations as of their April report give about a 25 percent chance of doing so. In fact, May 2023 was the planet's second-warmest May, according to an analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Each month since 1979 has been at least somewhat warmer than that 20th century average. Monthly global temperature anomalies (degrees Celsius) from 1980 through March 2023 in El Niño months (red), neutral months (gray) and La Niña months (blue), relative to the 20th century (1901-2000) average. However, much of the northern tier of states could trend hotter due in part to El Niño. this summer.Īccording to an outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2, this summer could be less hot in parts of the East and wet in the Southeast due to the developing El Niño. But if El Niño intensifies fast enough, it could at least subtly affect both temperatures and rainfall in the U.S. Observed Precip Forecasts Local Graphical Aviation Marine Rivers & Lakes Hurricanes Severe Weather Space Weather Fire Weather Text Bulletins By State By Message Type National Forecast Models Numerical Models Statistical Models. Here are some possible impacts.īoth El Niño and La Niña usually have the most impact on winter weather when they've been in place for several months. UV Alerts Observations Radar Satellite Snow Cover Surface Weather. The stronger it is, the more influence it could have. While not the only influence, an El Niño can eventually steer weather patterns in parts of the world, including the tropics and the U.S. In an El Niño, the typical trade winds near the equator weaken, leading to less rain near Indonesia and more rain over the central or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The circulation of the atmosphere is affected when this strip of ocean water is either persistently cooler or warmer over several months.Īnd that was the final criterion needed to declare El Niño conditions. Those at least 1.5 degrees Celsius are deemed strong El Niños. Departures of at least 1 degree Celsius are considered moderate El Niños. These are model forecasts of sea-surface temperature anomalies (degrees Celsius) in the region we monitor for El Niño through early 2024. ![]() That warming is occurring both at the surface and a few hundred meters below the surface, supporting the developing El Niño. NOAA declares an El Niño has developed when sea-surface temperatures in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean have reached at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for at least a month and are accompanied by changes in the atmosphere. ![]() What is El Niño? An El Niño is a periodic warming of a strip of water straddling the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The advisory is kind of like any other advisory or warning, but for a much longer time period. This means El Niño conditions have been observed and are expected to persist. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an El Niño advisory in the regularly scheduled monthly update released Thursday. Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.Įl Niño conditions have developed, and that could influence hurricane season and the upcoming winter, according to a just-released outlook. ![]()
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